By Jacob Wetrogan, Staff Writer
In October 2025, I wrote an article examining the New York City mayoral election and arguing that Zohran Mamdani’s policies presented serious risks to the city. At the time, I focused heavily on his proposals for housing, public safety, taxes, transportation and policing. I was particularly concerned that policies such as rent freezes, higher taxes, a $30 minimum wage and a more social-service-oriented approach to public safety could create unintended consequences. I also expressed concern about antisemitism and Mamdani’s rhetoric surrounding Israel. Nearly a year later, with Mamdani having served as mayor for most of 2026, I wanted to look back at those arguments and ask a simple question: How accurate were my concerns?
The answer is more complicated than I expected. Some of my predictions have not come true, some of my concerns remain unresolved and some of the evidence has largely supported the concerns I raised.
One of my biggest concerns was public safety. I argued that Mamdani’s emphasis on social programs and community outreach did not adequately address crime and drug use. I was particularly skeptical of his proposal to create a Department of Community Safety. That proposal has, in fact, become a reality, although it was ultimately established as an Office of Community Safety. The office has taken on issues including hate crimes, community mental health and other areas traditionally associated with public safety.
However, the more important question is whether this office has made New York less safe. Based on the available 2026 data, the answer is not what I predicted. Major crime has generally declined, with murders, shootings, robberies, burglaries and auto theft all falling compared with the previous year. The Mayor’s Management Report for the 2026 fiscal year found that major felony crime fell by more than 2%, murders by about 20%, shootings by more than 16%, burglaries by more than 9%, robberies by nearly 9% and auto theft by more than 7%.
This does not prove that Mamdani’s policies caused crime to fall. Crime was already declining in New York before he took office, and there are numerous factors that can influence crime rates. It does, however, mean that my concern that his approach would necessarily result in increasing crime is, at least for now, not supported by the available data.
That does not mean every public safety concern I raised has disappeared. The city’s broader public safety picture is more complicated than the numbers suggest. For example, NYPD data have shown increases in some categories, while emergency response times have also come under scrutiny. The administration’s approach to policing therefore remains an area worth watching rather than one where my original concerns can simply be invalidated.
Housing provides another interesting example. I strongly criticized Mamdani’s proposal for a rent freeze, arguing that it could discourage landlords from maintaining properties or investing in housing. Mamdani ultimately fulfilled this promise. In June, the Rent Guidelines Board approved a freeze for one- and two-year rent-stabilized leases.
However, it is still too early to know whether the long-term consequences I predicted will occur. A policy can be implemented without its effects being immediately visible. The question of whether a rent freeze will discourage investment, reduce housing supply or contribute to deteriorating buildings requires more time and evidence before a definitive conclusion can be reached.
At the same time, Mamdani has made significant commitments to affordable housing and tenant protections. His administration’s housing plan, “Block by Block,” calls for building 200,000 affordable homes and preserving another 200,000, while the administration has also taken steps to increase housing construction and strengthen enforcement against negligent landlords. This means that my original skepticism about whether his administration would devote significant resources to building and preserving affordable housing was not entirely justified.
Several of the policies I criticized most strongly have also not been implemented in the way I anticipated. I argued that raising the minimum wage to $30 would increase prices for businesses such as restaurants and grocery stores. As of September 2026, however, New York City’s general minimum wage remains at $17 per hour, not $30. Since the $30 minimum wage has not been implemented, the economic consequences I predicted cannot yet be evaluated.
The same is true of Mamdani’s proposal to make public transportation free. His administration has continued to pursue the idea, but free buses have not yet become a citywide reality. Mamdani has said that his administration is continuing to work with Albany on the issue, while his administration has already moved forward with projects intended to make bus service faster. Because the full policy has not yet been implemented, it would be premature to claim that the financial consequences I predicted (like a budget deficit) have either occurred or failed to occur.
The same is true of my concerns about corporate taxation. I predicted that large tax increases would drive businesses out of New York and damage the city’s economy. Mamdani has continued to advocate for higher taxes on wealthy New Yorkers and profitable corporations, but the major tax increases I was concerned about have not been implemented in the form I anticipated. Because of this, it would be unfair to claim either that my prediction was correct or that it was disproven. There simply has not been a full test of that prediction.
One issue where my original concern remains particularly relevant is antisemitism. I wrote that Mamdani’s rhetoric concerning Israel and his approach to policing could contribute to an environment in which Jewish New Yorkers felt less safe. The available data show that antisemitic hate crimes have remained a serious problem during his administration. Through July 2026, anti-Jewish hate crimes accounted for 56.9% of confirmed hate crimes in New York City, despite Jewish New Yorkers making up roughly 10% of the city’s population. Anti-Jewish hate crimes were also up 8.5% compared with the same period in 2025.
While correlation does not equal causation, it is important to note that the rise has occurred as I predicted. Meanwhile, Mamdani’s rhetoric has continued and escalated, including calls to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Mamdani has kept most of his campaign promises, implementing some while continuing to make strides towards the implementation of others. However, the long-term effects of his policies remain to be seen. While the city has not seen the immediate results I anticipated, the jury is still out on whether or not Mamdani’s policies will bring the prosperity he promises or the consequences I feared.
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